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  1. #29
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    September 11, 2007 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat rose to a record on speculation the U.S. government will cut its crop forecast for Australia, where dry weather has parched fields for a second straight year.

    Australia was expected to produce 23 million tons of wheat this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month. That estimate may be cut to 18 million tons in a agency report tomorrow, said Jason Britt, an analyst at Central States Commodities. Wheat has more than doubled in price in the past year as global output failed to keep pace with demand.

    "There's talk Australia is closer to 15 million tons, but I doubt the USDA will be that aggressive,'' Britt said from Kansas City, Missouri. "I would expect 18 million tons. Wheat has tremendous recouping abilities and if they get some rain they'd be in better shape.''

    Wheat futures for December delivery rose 29.5 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $8.905 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price climbed to a record $8.91 just before the close of floor trading. The grain has jumped 87 percent in the past six months. The USDA forecasts world demand will exceed production for the seventh time in eight years.

    On the Kansas City Board of Trade, wheat for December delivery rose the exchange's limit of 30 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $8.59 a bushel, the highest ever. Farmers have already started planting hard red-winter wheat, the variety traded in Kansas City and produced mostly in the southern Great Plains.

    Inventories in Canada, expected by the USDA to be the third-biggest exporter of the grain in the year ending on May 31, fell 29 percent to 6.8 million tons at the end of July from 9.6 million a year earlier, Statistics Canada data show. Drought will lower production, and supplies have been eroded by increased global demand.

    Global stockpiles may fall to 114.8 million tons by May 31, the lowest since 1982, the USDA said last month. That estimate is expected to fall in the government report tomorrow, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

    The wheat harvest in the U.S. was valued at $7.7 billion in 2006, the country's fourth-biggest crop behind corn, soybeans and hay, according to government data.

    Prices extended gains today after Jordan said it plans to buy at least 200,000 metric tons for delivery by December 1 after Syria canceled delivery because drought damaged its crop.

    Algeria agreed to buy 800,000 tons of wheat at a tender last week from various sellers. Egypt said it will seek at least 55,000 tons of the grain at a tender tomorrow. Since June 1, U.S. exporters sold 94 percent more grain as of August 31 than they did a year earlier, USDA data show. Actual shipments are up 44 percent from a year earlier, the agency said.

    "The question is: Are we going to get through a morning when someone's not in the market'' to buy more wheat, Britt said. "It's crazy that every morning we have a 'buy' mentality.''


  2. #30
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    Mercredi 12 Septembre 2007 -- Le ministre de l’Agriculture, Saïd Barkat, a indiqué hier à El Khroub, dans la wilaya de Constantine, que l’Algérie «est parvenue à l’autosuffisance en matière de production de semences céréalières». «L’Algérie n’importe désormais aucun grain de blé destiné à la semence grâce à une production nationale suffisante et de très bonne qualité», ajoutera-t-il en émettant le vœu que la réussite des agriculteurs et professionnels de la filière de production de semences céréalières puisse être un stimulant pour les autres producteurs afin que «la couverture des besoins en produits agricoles de large consommation, notamment en matière de blé dur et tendre, de la pomme de terre et du lait», soit assurée. L’assertion concernant l’autosuffisance en semences céréalières n’est cependant pas partagée par des responsables du secteur qui soutiennent que la production algérienne est loin de satisfaire tous les besoins en semences de toutes les campagnes.

    Le ministre a, par ailleurs, annoncé que la production céréalière réalisée en 2007 a atteint 4,3 millions de tonnes, alors que la demande annuelle de consommation pour les céréales se situe entre 6 à 7 millions de tonnes. Au cours de la même journée, dans la wilaya d’Oum El Bouaghi, dans une déclaration à la presse en marge de sa visite de travail à Aïn M’lila, le ministre réaffirmera qu’il «n’y aura pas d’augmentation des prix du lait et du pain». Mieux, M. Barkat affirmera qu’il n’y aura également aucune tension sur les viandes rouge et blanche, car la production nationale et les quantités importées étaient suffisantes pour couvrir les besoins du marché, particulièrement pendant ce mois de ramadhan. En fait, le ministre semble ignorer un point important, le plus important : le problème des viandes n’est pas dans la quantité ou la disponibilité, mais dans leurs prix qui saignent le consommateur.


  3. #31
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    CHICAGO, September 20, 2007 (Dow Jones) -- U.S. wheat futures are called to start Thursday's day session 5 to 7 cents per bushel higher on strong export demand and firmer trade overnight, traders said.

    In overnight trading, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December wheat rose 5 1/4 cents to $8.50 1/4.

    Although U.S. wheat futures climbed to all-time high prices last week, export sales remained strong, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency said sales of 2007-08 and 2008-09 wheat for the week ended September 13 totaled 1.6 million metric tons, above trade expectations of 600,000 to 1.5 million tons.

    For the 2007-08 crop, sales of 1.44 metric tons were 33% below the previous week but 12% over the prior four-week average, according to the USDA. Top buyers included Nigeria, which took 182,400 tons, Algeria, which bought 115,200 tons, and unknown destinations, which bought 368,100 tons.

    Sales of 160,200 tons for delivery in 2008-09 were primarily for Kenya, which bought 130,000 tons.

    "The export sales are supportive," a CBOT floor broker said.

    In other export news, the Taiwan Flour Millers Association bought 88,000 metric tons of U.S. No. 1 wheat from trading house Mitsui in a tender concluded on Thursday, an association official said. The first shipment will arrive in Taiwan October 22-November 15, and the second November 4-18.

    Japan said it bought 115,000 metric tons of wheat, including 75,000 tons from the U.S., in a tender concluded Thursday. The entire shipment is expected to arrive in November.

    The Russian government, meanwhile, said it may impose an export duty of 10% on grain next week, when the government plans to announce the conditions of grain interventions on the domestic market, according to a report. The news may not have a big impact on the markets as traders previously had speculated about the possibility of a suspension of or tax on Russian wheat exports.

    However, renewed chatter about the likelihood of an export duty may bring the idea back into traders' heads, which would be supportive, a CBOT floor trader said. Russia is considering an export duty, in part, to control rising grain prices.

    Trading could be two-sided Thursday following two-days of losses, traders said. Fundamentals remain bullish, but the market has worked itself into a bit of a consolidative trend, they said.

    Turning to the weather, some scattered light rain fell in Australia over southeast portions of South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales, although forecasts calls for mostly dry conditions Thursday to Sunday, DTN Meteorlogix said. Dryness in growing regions remains a major concern and further crop losses are expected from the unfavorable conditions, traders said.

    In Argentina, the Meteorlogix outlook calls for dry conditions or just a few light showers during the next seven days. Soil moisture has improved significantly across the main growing areas of central Argentina during the past week.

    In the U.S. central and southern Plains, drier weather is expected through Sunday, Meteorlogix said. Conditions are generally favorable for planting and emerging wheat, although more rain would benefit some southwest areas.

    Prospects for better wheat yields in 2008-09 and profit-taking should limit wheat price gains, according to a Standard Chartered report. Due to current tight wheat supplies, wheat should hold above $7 per bushel before easing in 3Q 2008 to adjust for likely crop Improvements, the report said.

    CBOT December wheat Wednesday briefly traded limit down and closed sharply lower on profit-taking, but no serious chart damage occurred, a technical analyst said. Still, it will be difficult for the wheat market to find the steady flow of fresh, supportive fundamental news needed "to satisfy a very hungry bull," he said.

    The bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close CBOT December wheat above solid resistance at this week's high of $8.81, the analyst said. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below psychological support at $8.00.

    First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of $8.60 and then at $8.65 - the top of Wednesday's downside price gap on the daily bar chart. First support lies at Wednesday's low of $8.39 and then at $8.30.

    At the Kansas City Board of Trade, the bulls' next upside price objective is closing December wheat above solid resistance at this week's high of $8.65, the analyst said. The bears' next downside objective is closing prices below psychological support at $8.00.

    First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of $8.38 1/2 and then at $8.47 - the top of Wednesday's downside price gap. First support is seen at Wednesday's low of $8.18 3/4 and then at $8.06.

  4. #32
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    September 21, 2007 -- U.S. wheat futures Friday surged in a thin volume trade,with Chicago Board of Trade December wheat briefly touching limit up on strongexport sales and technical buying, analysts said.

    Chicago Board of Trade December wheat closed 24 cents higher at $8.74 per bushel, up 28 cents on the week. Kansas City Board of Trade December wheat climbed 24 cents to $8.58, up 29 cents on the week. Minneapolis Grain Exchange December wheat soared 23 cents to $8.26, up 31 cents on the week.

    CBOT December wheat hit limit up, or 30 cents higher, in pit trading amid light technical buying, traders said. Some buy stops were triggered as prices rose, they said.

    In electronic trading, CBOT December wheat came within 1/4 cent of tradinglimit up but did not hit the daily price ceiling. That indicated there may have been some local buying supporting the rally, said Tom Leffler, owner of Leffler Commodities.

    Trading volume was thin, so small buy orders shoved prices several cents higher, CBOT floor traders said. There was "a lot of air" in the market," one trader said.

    Commodity funds bought an estimated 3,000 contracts at the CBOT.

    "We found some technicals in there that helped push this market up," Leffler said.

    Prior to the opening, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Iraq had bought700,000 metric tons of U.S. hard red winter wheat and Algeria had bought another 100,000 tons. The Iraqi sale is for delivery in the 2007-08 marketing year, while half of the Algerian sale is for delivery in 2007-08 and half is for delivery in 2008-09, the USDA said.

    The export sales illustrated that demand for U.S. wheat remains strong, analysts said. The news followed the release of bigger-than-expected weekly export sales data Thursday.

    In related news, Russia indicated that it would likely announce next week plans to limit its wheat exports. The government is considering an export taxin response to rising grain prices.

    It wouldn't be surprising "at all" for Russia to put a duty on exports, a CBOT floor trader said. It seems as though markets have already priced in the adjustment, he said.

    Looking forward, the trade will continue to monitor weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, Leffler said. Australian wheat fields are still suffering from a lack of rain, although Argentina's crop is looking fairly good, he said.

    Australia's wheat areas were generally dry Thursday, with only scatteredlight showers and little significant rainfall, DTN Meteorlogix said. The firm'soutlook calls for mostly dry conditions during the weekend, followed by a veryscattered shower pattern across the country during next week.

    In general, there is no change to the overall dry weather pattern in the major Australia wheat areas expected during the next 10 days, Meteorlogix said. Crop losses will increase as the crop enters its heading stage during the next few weeks, according to the firm.

    If Australia receives some good moisture, it could "make a lot of difference with what's going on in the short term" in the U.S. wheat markets, Leffler said. Rains would bearish (sic) if it looked as though they would give Australia's crop a boost.

    Argentina's major wheat areas had a few showers Thursday. The Meteorlogix outlook calls for dry conditions or just a few light showers during the nextweek.

    Argentine farmers wrapped up 2007-08 wheat planting this week, seeding 5.44 million hectares with the grain, the Agriculture Secretariat said in its weekly crop report Friday. Crop conditions are generally good following a second weak of rainfall, although some spots of severe drought remain in the west of Santa Fe province, the Secretariat said.

    Kansas City Board of Trade

    The HRW wheat sales to Iraq and Algeria boosted KCBT wheat futures early, afloor trader said. HRW wheat is traded at the KCBT.

    There are ongoing concerns about tight global ending stocks amid the persistent dryness in Australia, the KCBT floor trader said. Nervousness about shrinking supplies is still seen as supportive and is responsible for the market's volatility, he said.

    Minneapolis Grain Exchange

    MGE wheat bounced on the strong export sales, with traders reluctant to sell too aggressively going into the weekend, a MGE floor trader said. The fundamentals of the market are still the same - world supplies are tight and the pace of business is strong, he said.

    Traders will look at the USDA's weekly export inspections report Monday as the trade continues to watch for signs that the market is rationing demand, the MGE trader said. There was some inter-market trading between all the exchanges, he said.

  5. #33
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    September 25, 2007 (RTTNews) - Wheat prices topped the $9 a bushel mark again on Tuesday in U.S. trading and remained up for the day. December wheat added 8.75 cents to trade at $8.865 after hitting as high as $9.05 in early trading. This is wheat's highest level since hitting a record of $9.07 a bushel on September 12.

    Prices soared again on more heavy-demand world-wide. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday that private exporters reported export sales of 330,000 metric tons of hard red winter wheat for delivery to Algeria in the 2007-08 marketing year, which began June 1. Exporters are required to report daily dales of one commodity to one destination in the same day to the USDA. The rest is reported on a weekly basis.

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported on Monday that wheat inspections were up 11 million bushels from last week. Inspections came in at 41.387 million bushels, ahead of a predicted range of 30-37 million. Inspections are up about 58% from a year ago. Farmers are planting more wheat as the grain has soared to record levels this summer.....


  6. #34
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    NEW YORK, September 26, 2007 - Wheat prices peaked Wednesday in advance of a government report expected to show robust export sales, with foreign demand for U.S. wheat intensifying as world stockpiles dwindle.

    In other commodities markets, oil rebounded from early declines, industrial metals ended in a mixed range and gold declined.

    The Agriculture Department reports weekly export sales on Thursday, and analysts expect the past week's reading to come in strong. World wheat supplies are heading for the lowest level in nearly three decades, according to USDA estimates, after major producing regions got too much rain this year or too little.

    Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co., said a rush of late speculative buying ahead of Thursday's report helped drive prices to the 30-cent limit at the close of the Chicago Board of Trade and led the December contract to finish at an all-time high of $9.1725 a bushel. The exchange limits wheat price swings to 30 cents in either direction.

    "The market is in a demand-rationing mode," said Basse.

    Foreign demand for U.S. wheat has been strong. The USDA on Wednesday said Algeria bought 200,000 metric tons of hard, red winter wheat, raising the country's total orders for U.S. wheat this week to more than half a million metric tons.

    On the supply side, the Ukraine government on Wednesday outlined quotas on grain exports from November 1 that are expected to curtail sales after a drought damaged crops in the region. Also, Dow Jones Newswires cited a Russian government official as saying country is mulling a 10 percent wheat export duty due to tight supplies.


  7. #35
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    September 28, 2007 -- Corn harvest progress was a little below expectations (but still well above last year, as well as the five year average), and corn can see some additional harvest pressure. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Monday that 22% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of September 23 (above the 12% combined last year, as well as the five year average of 14%).

    This big corn crop is in the market, and everyone is aware of it. China has ended corn exports and will eventually become a corn importer. The U.S. is the primary corn feed grain source to the world, and is also the least expensive. Corn is $5.50 in China, $7 in Europe, and $4.50 a bushel in Brazil. Last year the corn market put in its low in August, and the commercials missed the opportunity to buy corn at a low price during harvest. The U.S. will produce a record crop, but the stocks to usage ratio will tighten because of strong global demand. The fight for acres will be more intense than ever next year. And at these prices, producers will plant wheat and beans with the same enthusiasm they planted corn this year. Agriculture is so exciting these days. We think it is going to be this way for a few more years as the forces of supply and demand swing back and forth...

    ...Many are calling for a top in the wheat market. Algeria bought 330,000 tons of HRW wheat from the U.S. last night. As long as countries keep buying wheat at these prices, perhaps the bull market continues...


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