Iraq analysis

[Al-khiyal]

In late January 2003, as Secretary of State Colin Powell prepared to argue the Bush administration's case against Iraq at the United Nations, veteran CIA officer Tyler Drumheller sat down with a classified draft of Powell's speech to look for errors. He found a whopper: a claim about mobile biological labs built by Iraq for germ warfare.

Drumheller instantly recognized the source, an Iraqi defector suspected of being mentally unstable and a liar. The CIA officer took his pen, he recounted in an interview, and crossed out the whole paragraph.

A few days later, the lines were back in the speech. Powell stood before the U.N. Security Council on Feb. 5 and said: "We have first-hand descriptions of biological weapons factories on wheels and on rails."

The sentence took Drumheller completely by surprise.

"We thought we had taken care of the problem," said the man who was the CIA's European operations chief before retiring last year, "but I turn on the television and there it was, again."

While the administration has repeatedly acknowledged intelligence failures over Iraqi weapons claims that led to war, new accounts by former insiders such as Drumheller shed light on one of the most spectacular failures of all: How U.S. intelligence agencies were eagerly drawn in by reports about a troubled defector's claims of secret germ factories in the Iraqi desert. The mobile labs were never found.

Drumheller, who is writing a book about his experiences, described in extensive interviews repeated attempts to alert top CIA officials to problems with the defector, code-named Curveball, in the days before the Powell speech. Other warnings came prior to President Bush's State of the Union address on Jan. 28, 2003. In the same speech that contained the now famous "16 words" on Iraqi attempts to acquire uranium, Bush spoke in far greater detail about mobile labs "designed to produce germ warfare agents."

The warnings triggered debates within the CIA but ultimately made no visible impact at the top, current and former intelligence officials said. In briefing Powell before his U.N. speech, George Tenet, then the CIA director, personally vouched for the accuracy of the mobile-lab claim, according to participants in the briefing. Tenet now says he did not learn of the problems with Curveball until much later and that he received no warnings from Drumheller or anyone else.

"No one mentioned Drumheller, or Curveball," Lawrence B. Wilkerson, Powell's chief of staff at the time, said in an interview. "I didn't know the name Curveball until months afterward."

Curveball's role in shaping U.S. declarations about Iraqi bioweapons capabilities was first described in a series of reports in the Los Angeles Times, and later in a March 2005 report by a presidential commission on U.S. intelligence failures regarding allegations that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. But Drumheller's first-hand accounts add new detail about the CIA's embrace of a source whose credibility was already unraveling.

More than a year after Powell's speech, after an investigation that extended to three continents, the CIA acknowledged that Curveball was a con artist who drove a taxi in Iraq and spun his engineering knowledge into a fantastic but plausible tale about secret bioweapons factories on wheels.

But in the fall of 2002, Curveball was living the life of an important spy. A Baghdad native whose real name has never been released, he was residing in a safe house in Germany, where he had requested asylum three years earlier. In return for immigration permits for himself and his family, the Iraqi supplied Germany's foreign intelligence service with what appeared to be a rare insider's account of one of President Saddam Hussein's long-rumored WMD programs.

Curveball described himself as a chemical engineer who had worked inside an unusual kind of laboratory, one that was built on a trailer bed and produced weapons for germ warfare. He furnished detailed, technically complex descriptions of mobile labs and even described an industrial accident that he said killed a dozen people.

The German intelligence agency BND faithfully passed Curveball's stories to the Americans. Over time, the informant generated more than 100 intelligence reports on secret Iraqi weapons programs -- the only such reports from an informant claiming to have visited and worked in mobile labs. Other informants, also later discredited, had claimed indirect knowledge of mobile labs.

In late 2002, the Bush administration began scouring intelligence files for reports of Iraqi weapons threats. Drumheller was asked to press a counterpart from a European intelligence agency for direct access to Curveball. Other officials confirmed that it was the German intelligence service.

The German official declined but then offered a startlingly candid assessment, Drumheller recalled. "He said, 'I think the guy is a fabricator,' " Drumheller said, recounting the conversation with the official, whom he declined to name. "He said: 'We also think he has psychological problems. We could never validate his reports.' "

When Drumheller relayed the warning to his superiors in October 2002, it sparked what he described as "a series of the most contentious meetings I've ever seen" in three decades of government work.

Although no American had ever interviewed Curveball, analysts with the CIA's Center for Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation and Arms Control believed the informant's technical descriptions were too detailed to be fabrications.

"People were cursing. These guys were absolutely, violently committed to it," Drumheller said. "They would say to us, 'You're not scientists, you don't understand.' "

In January 2003, Drumheller received a new request from CIA headquarters to contact the German intelligence service about Curveball. This time, Drumheller recalled, the U.S. spy agency had three questions:

Could a U.S. official refer to Curveball's mobile lab accounts in an upcoming political speech?

Could the Germans guarantee that Curveball would stand by his account?

Could German intelligence verify Curveball's claims?

The reply from Berlin, as Drumheller recalls it, was less than encouraging: There are no guarantees........

Continue reading..... Warnings on WMD 'fabricator' were ignored, ex-CIA aide says

4-page article

[Bilderbooger]

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You are Muslims, and Islam, before anything else, is a religion of peace and justice," Aliya Agliulin, sister of hostage Rinat Agliulin, said on Aljazeera television on June 21.

Apparently you were mistaken, sister.

[Al-khiyal]

A number of U.S. soldiers were charged in the last couple of weeks with murdering helpless, unarmed, Iraqi prisoners. Taking your (mis)reading of Islam as a guide, what do you think this fact could enable people to say of American values?

[Al-khiyal]

NOURI AL-MALIKI, Iraq’s Prime Minister, offered insurgents an olive branch yesterday, announcing a 24-point reconciliation plan that aims to lure rebel groups back into mainstream society.

“The plan is open to all those who want to enter the political process to build their country and save their people, as long as they did not commit crimes,” Mr Maliki told MPs.

“To those who want to reconcile, we extend our hand with an olive branch to build our nation. To those who insist on aggression, terror and killing, we will confront them with firmness to protect our people.”

The text was, however, a watered down version of the document shown to The Times on Thursday. Iraq’s presidency council and representatives from the Shia ruling coalition cut the document from 28 to 24 articles on Saturday night, said Faisal Abdullah, a spokesman for Khalid al-Attiyah, the Shia deputy speaker.

Noticeably missing from the final draft was a call for the Government to recognise the difference between resistance and terrorist groups and a written invitation for resistance groups to join a national dialogue.

The new wording reads only: “To adopt a credible national dialogue in dealing with all the different views and political positions that are opposing the views and positions of the Government and the political powers...”

In a gruesome reminder of how far there is to go in resolving the conflict, an al-Qaeda-led group released a video yesterday showing the execution of three men it said were Russian diplomats taken hostage earlier this month. Two were apparently beheaded and one shot.

The published plan also removed a demand for the Government to agree upon a timeline for the withdrawal of foreign forces based on the readiness of Iraqi troops.

It dropped a pledge to revisit the constitution and cut a clause on reinstating employees who had jobs in ministries that had been dissolved under the US-occupation.

The last minute revisions reflected the tensions surrounding the document and the severe mistrust among Iraq’s communities. Some Shia politicians denounced the campaign to reach out to Sunni rebels.

“We should know the resistance we are talking about. All of the groups I’ve heard about are targeting Iraqi forces. They are criminals. I can’t see who are the resistance,” Ali al-Deeb, a member of Mr Maliki’s own Dawa party, told The Times.

Nonetheless, some Government officials were still championing a far-reaching amnesty for insurgents and a timeline for the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces. Haidar al-Abadi, a Dawa politician who is close to Mr Maliki, told The Times that a conditions-based timetable linking the training of Iraqi forces to the pullout of foreign troops was still on the table.

“I think there is pressure to put a timetable on when Iraqi security forces should be ready. And by that time, we will ask the multinational forces to reduce their numbers, and then they should withdraw from Iraq,” he said. A withdrawal date is one of the main demands of Sunni insurgents not attached to ultra-radical groups like al-Qaeda.

Sunni politicians still endorsed the document despite the gutting of the language. Adnan al-Dulaimi, the Sunni leader, told parliament that the initiative “will be the first step in achieving security and stability then start building the new Iraq”.

Zalmay Khalilzad, the American envoy to Iraq, called the plan a good step “to mend Iraq’s wounds”.

On the ground, Iraq’s day-to-day carnage raged on. Eighteen people were reported killed in car bombings and shootings across Iraq on Sunday and 16 Government employees were kidnapped north of Baghdad.

Shias cut back olive branch for insurgents

[Al-khiyal]

"...In a glimmer of hope for the region, a key Shiite legislator on Monday said seven Sunni Arab insurgent groups had contacted the government to declare their readiness to join efforts at national reconciliation.

The seven lesser groups, most of them believed populated by former members or backers of Saddam Hussein's government, military or security agencies, have said they want a truce, Hassan al-Suneid, a lawmaker and member of the political bureau of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa Party, told The Associated Press.

The contact by the insurgent organizations, which could not be independently verified, would mark an important potential shift and could stand as evidence of a growing divide between Iraqi insurgents and the more brutal and ideological fighters of al-Qaida in Iraq, who are believed to mainly be non-Iraqi Islamic militants..."

7 lesser Iraq insurgent groups seek truce claims Shi'ite lawmaker

[Al-khiyal]

ABU GHRAIB, Iraq (AFP) - The lock opens and a heavyset man sporting a black knitted skullcap similar to that worn by the slain Al-Qaeda leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, leaves a cage at Abu Ghraib prison.

Saad al-Hayali, 47, was one of 500 detainees at US and Iraqi-run facilities in Iraq released at a ceremony on Friday, as part of a bid by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to promote reconciliation and national dialogue among the country's feuding factions.

Maliki, who announced the initiative June 6, was to disclose details of his plan on Sunday.

But a conversation with Hayali and several others - all Sunni Arabs locked up on suspicion of ties to insurgents - quickly suggests they are not willing to forgive and forget.

Some may be even more determined after their prison time to take up arms against US and Iraqi forces.

"I heard about reconciliation and I reject it completely because something built on shaky foundations will not stand up," Hayali said bluntly.

More than 2,100 detainees have been set free since June 6, said the spokesman of US detainee operations in Iraq, Lieutenant Colonel Keir-Kevin Curry. He said a total of 2,500 detainees should be released by the end of this month.

Hayali, a former civil engineer, said reconciliation would be meaningless. He said he does not recognise the legitimacy of the Maliki government, which began a full four-year term in April following elections in December, nor does he recognise the country's new constitution passed last year.

His objection is that both are based on a US blueprint for sovereignty drafted after the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Hayali said he was arrested with his two sons and brother 26 months ago on charges of being "terrorists" and inciting violence in the town Tarmia, a well-known insurgent hotspot north of Baghdad.

"I did not have a chance to carry a weapon, but I was using words to reject occupation," he said.

His sons, aged 17 and 24, were let go a few days later but he and his brother were held at the infamous US-run Abu Ghraib, scene of a major prisoner abuse scandal in 2004. His brother was released a few months ago.

"The solution to all our problems is God's book. This is the constitution," Hayali said as he held up a large copy of the Koran, the Muslim holy book.

"I will sacrifice myself to make this happen; our blood must spill for this book."

Hayali embodies the disillusionment of the once-privileged Sunni Arab minority after the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime.

Many have refused to accept that the reins of power are now in the hands of the majority Shiites, repressed for years under the previous regime.

Some continue to fuel a bloody insurgency that has branched out into a struggle pitting members of the two Muslim sects against one another.

"Reconciliation can happen if Iraqis are left alone. We are all brothers," said Sabir Muslih, 36, who was arrested in October by Iraqi forces and handed to US troops on suspicion of being involved in a roadside bombing.

"But the problem is foreign countries like Iran. It is another Tehran here now. Iranians pretending to be part of the government slaughtered 18 of my cousins," he added, referring to Shiite militia death squads.

Many of Iraq's new leaders maintain very close ties with Shiite Iran, the arch foe of Saddam's ousted regime.

A sectarian war and the establishment of an Islamic state were the purported aims of Jordanian-born Zarqawi before his death in a US air strike on June 7.

Zarqawi's alleged right-hand man, an Iraqi Sunni Arab by the name of Mansur al-Mashhadani, was also killed by US forces a week ago. The military said he had been imprisoned for a few months in 2004 and was then released after deemed unthreatening.

"Many people inside embraced God for real. We used to talk about jihad, and the good news is that it is running in everybody's veins now," Hayali said.

"In our prayers we used to keep repeating: God help us implement your law and raise your word high."

Asked if there was concern that Abu Ghraib and other detention facilities in Iraq were becoming breeding grounds for militants, Curry said: "One of the things in a democratic process is freedom of religion and we are here to support this."

He said that those deemed to be a bad influence on fellow detainees are usually segregated and that all of those released so far have gone through a careful vetting process by a special US-Iraqi board.

"These detainees have denounced violence and pledged to be good citizens of Iraq," Curry said, adding that none have been found guilty of bombings, murder, torture or kidnapping.

He said only 5.6 percent of those released from US-run prisons since January 2005 have been recaptured.

"I am innocent, someone conspired on me!" screamed an old man in traditional dress from behind a cage at Abu Ghraib before his release.

"Yes you are right and this applies to 90 percent of you," Abed Mutlaq al-Juburi, a Sunni Arab MP from northern Iraq, shot back.

Juburi stood on a shaded, elevated wooden plank under the blazing sun, addressing hundreds of detainees, mostly from areas around Baghdad and the western city of Ramadi, on the other side of a fence.

Many held copies of the Koran against their chests.

"Some politicians are trying to draw a wedge between us, but we should not be divided," he told the men. "Be Sunni, Shiite, Kurd or whatever you want, but we must all live under one tent called Iraq."

After the gate to the cage was opened by a US soldier, the men came out one by one to shake Juburi's hand before boarding big buses taking them home.

Later Juburi insisted in an interview that prisoner releases will not work unless they are combined with a formal apology and compensation to those wrongly detained, along with job opportunities.

"A hungry person will do anything and the jobless can easily be lured to commit crimes," he said.

On Friday, a leading Shiite cleric Sadreddin al-Kubanji, said in his weekly sermon that Maliki was making "a strategic error" by releasing "terrorists and criminals."

"If you are a young pious Sunni Arab you are a 'terrorist'. I do not want to be involved in politics or any reconciliation," said Bakr Abedlkarim, 22, from Baghdad's Adhamiya district.

Veterans of U.S. prisons in Iraq in no mood for reconciliation

[Al-khiyal]

More than 450 prisoners to be released on Tuesday in Iraq