Iraq analysis

[Al-khiyal]

Lina Massufi, a 32-year-old Iraqi laboratory assistant with two children, is a widow - her husband was killed by US troops when he accidentally drove down a closed road in 2003. In the past three months she has seen her house raided and her furniture smashed 12 times.

"Every time they raid my house, they break down the door," she told a UN official. When she asked them why they did not ring the bell "they laughed at me and called me an idiot". Her brother Fae'ek, a pharmacy student, was arrested and held in prison for a week. "He returned with signs of torture on his body, and was crying like a baby because of the pain."

Her story shows why the odds are against what may be President George Bush's final gamble in Iraq: the attempt by US troops, now receiving 17,500 reinforcements, to regain control of Baghdad. The plan is for US forces, along with Iraqi army and police, to enter Sunni and Shia districts in the capital, cleanse them of insurgents and militia and then stay put, preventing their return. In his State of the Union speech last week Mr Bush told Congress: "With Iraqis in the lead, our forces will help secure the city by chasing down the terrorists, insurgents, and the roaming death squads."

But the failings of this strategy become more obvious the further one gets from Washington and the closer to Baghdad. The insurgents and militiamen, both Sunni and Shia, usually have more credibility in their districts than Iraqi government forces. As for the heavily Shia police commandos, they are seen by Sunni in Baghdad as licensed death squads.

A foretaste of what the "surge" of US and Iraqi soldiers will mean came last week, as they fought their way into the tough Sunni insurgent-controlled Haifa Street neighbourhood, only a mile from the Green Zone. Iraqi soldiers happily let US forces take the lead, and a US long-range missile demolished a house from which snipers were allegedly firing. The readiness of the Americans to use such heavy weapons in densely-populated urban areas ensures that many civilians have been, and will be, killed and wounded.

The Iraqi government forces are either highly sectarian or will not fight. The insurgents and militias are strong because they provide the security the government does not, and Baghdad has already broken up into several dozen hostile townships, each defended by its own militia. There are fewer and fewer mixed districts; Shia caught in Sunni areas are killed, and vice versa. Strangers are viewed with suspicion, and there are signs everywhere, saying "Death to Spies".

The American troops may be seen as temporary allies by either side, but are also blamed for the lethal anarchy. Some 61 per cent of Iraqis, a majority of both Sunni and Shia, approve of armed attacks on US forces.

The Shia, the majority in Baghdad, are on the offensive. They have their great bastion in the shabby overcrowded houses of Sadr City, with more than two million people, and have taken over almost all of Baghdad east of the Tigris, aside from a few hard-core Sunni areas such as al-Adhamiyah. They are also seizing ground in west Baghdad, attacking south from al-Khadamiyah, site of a revered Shia shrine. Al-Hurriya, once mixed, is now Shia; the Sunni are being pressed back into the south-west of the city.

In the heart of this Sunni core of Baghdad, now under insurgent control, lies al-Khadra. The sort of area where the future of the US plan will be decided, it used to be a modestly prosperous 1970s suburb, bisected by important highways now leading to the US military headquarters at the airport, the half-ruined city of Fallujah and the notorious prison at Abu Ghraib. Another highway leads to Taji, north of Baghdad, where there have been repeated insurgent attacks.

Al-Khadra's 60,000 people are waiting with dread to see what the coming US-Iraqi government offensive means for them. There is a lot for them to be frightened of: already young men of military age are leaving the neighbourhood for Syria or Mosul in northern Iraq.

Ismail, in his early thirties, fled to Mosul when police commandos suddenly arrested 25 men, including two of his cousins, on 15 January. One cousin was later released and told how he had been beaten and tortured with electricity, accused of being an insurgent. "When I said I was not a mujahedin [fighter], they said that as a Sunni I was bound to support them." He was only released when a US commander demanded to know what had happened to the prisoners, and the commandos freed 15 at random. The fate of the others is unknown.

I first visited al-Khadra in October 2003, when a police station near a mosque with a green dome had been attacked by a suicide bomber, killing three policemen and wounding nine. I walked over broken rubble to talk to shaken policemen who survived. They were barricading off the street in front of their station, and it has remained closed to this day. But while the barricades may stop suicide bombers, insurgents have repeatedly attacked with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs).

Al-Khadra was predisposed to favour armed resistance to the US. Many of its people had worked for the old regime - under Saddam Hussein, when the district was 80 per cent Sunni and 20 per cent Shia, several senior leaders of the Baath party lived in al-Khadra. Sunni inhabitants often came from the great tribes of western Iraq, such as the al-Dulaimi, al-Rawi and al-Hadithi, who are at the heart of the insurgency.

US vehicles often used the important roads leading through al-Khadra, and as often came under attack. The most common weapon was the roadside mine (the notorious IED, or improvised explosive device), frequently consisting of several heavy artillery shells wired together. This was planted either in the road or among the piles of rubbish that lie all over al-Khadra. The insurgents, realising the usefulness of garbage for concealing mines, discouraged rubbish collectors by simply shooting two of them dead.

The men who detonated the mines became expert at timing them to explode when US patrols were passing. Once I went to a house on the edge of al-Khadra, facing a highway on which a US Humvee had just been blown up. The heavy machine gunner had been killed and his gun, its barrel twisted sideways by the blast, had been hurled 40 yards on to the roof of the house.

In February 2006, when the Shia al-Askari shrine in Samarra was blown up, there was a pogrom of Sunni in Baghdad. Many survivors moved into al-Khadra, and at the same time the Shia were driven out. "Some were threatened; many just fled," said a resident. "Now, if a Shia is found here, he is killed." The insurgents who took over were preferred to Iraqi government forces, and deemed essential in case of an attack by Shia militias like the Mehdi Army.

How would the people of al-Khadra react if US troops and Iraqi security forces launched an offensive? Probably some of the insurgents would fight to the last, but others would fade away, using classic guerrilla tactics. "Searches we could accept, and maybe the presence of Americans and Iraqi army," said Ismail, "but not mass arrests or the use of the police commandos. If this happens, we will resist."

THE FLASHPOINTS:

Sadr City

Stronghold of radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army. Fighters can move from rooftop to rooftop

Al-Adhamiyah

Traditional Sunni district, vulnerable because it is on the Tigris's east bank, now overwhelmingly Shia

Al-Khadimiya

Site of one of the holiest Shia shrines, now infiltrated by Shia militias pushing into western Baghdad

Karada

Shia area more peaceful than most, but increasingly targeted recently by bombs and suicide attacks

Intense streetfighting last week in the Sunni insurgent-held district of Haifa Street, when US forces used heavy weapons in a densely-populated area, raised fears that the struggle to regain control of Baghdad could resemble the battle of Stalingrad, with residents of districts such as al-Khadra vowing to resist.

Battle for Baghdad: City braces itself for U.S. surge

[Al-khiyal]

FORT CAMPBELL, Kyentucky - A 101st Airborne Division soldier was sentenced Thursday to 18 years in prison for murdering a detainee and taking part in the killings of two others in Iraq last year.

Pfc. Corey R. Clagett, 21, was one of four soldiers from the division’s 3rd Brigade “Rakkasans” who were accused in the detainees’ deaths during a May 9 raid on the Muthana chemical complex in Samarra, about 60 miles north of Baghdad.

In an agreement with prosecutors, Clagett, of Moncks Corner, S.C., pleaded guilty to charges of murder, attempted murder, conspiracy to commit murder and conspiracy to obstruct justice. Prosecutors dropped a second obstruction charge and charges of disrespecting an officer and threatening.

The soldiers first told investigators they shot the detainees because they were attempting to flee — a story they now say they made up — and that commanders had given them orders to kill all military-age males on the mission.

Two of those soldiers, Spc. William B. Hunsaker and Spc. Juston R. Graber, have changed their stories and pleaded guilty. The squad leader, Staff Sgt. Raymond Girouard, is awaiting his court-martial.

“(Sgt. Girouard) said we were going to cut the zip ties loose and kill the detainees,” Clagett told the military judge, Col. Theodore Dixon, on Thursday. “I knew it was an unlawful order. I just went along with it.”

The judge asked Clagett what his intention was when he shot at the detainees.

“To kill them, your honor,” Clagett said.

Clagett’s lawyer, Paul Bergrin, has insisted Clagett was following orders, but sought the plea agreement after Hunsaker, 24, told a military judge that Clagett helped him shoot the detainees.

Clagett will also be demoted to private and dishonorably discharged. If he does not cooperate with prosecutors, he could be sentenced to life in prison with a chance at parole.

Military prosecutors would not discuss the case.

U.S. soldier gets 18 years for 3 Iraqi detainee deaths

[Al-khiyal]

HAGERSTOWN, Maryland - The only U.S. military officer charged with a crime in the Abu Ghraib scandal will be court-martialed on eight charges, including cruelty and maltreatment of prisoners, the Army said Friday.

Lt. Col. Steven Lee Jordan, a 50-year-old reservist from Virginia who ran the interrogation center at the Iraqi prison, was accused of failing to exert his authority as the place descended into chaos, with prisoners stripped naked, photographed in humiliating poses and intimidated by snarling dogs. He was also charged with lying to investigators.

He has not been accused of personally torturing or humiliating prisoners, and was not pictured in any of the photos that embarrassed the Pentagon and shocked the Muslim world.

Maj. Gen. Guy C. Swann, commander of the Military District of Washington, decided Jordan must stand trial, Army spokesman Col. Jim Yonts told The Associated Press.

Jordan was charged in April with 12 offenses. Swann dismissed four of them after Jordan was given an Article 32 hearing, the military equivalent of a civilian preliminary hearing, in October. Most of the dropped charges stemmed from allegations that Jordan had falsified vehicle repair records.

Besides cruelty and maltreatment, the charges include disobeying a superior officer, willful dereliction of duty and making false statements. The remaining charges carry a total maximum prison term of 22 years.

Jordan's military lawyers did not immediately return calls for comment.

At his October hearing, Jordan said he had no operational control over interrogations and spent much of his time trying to improve soldiers' deplorable living conditions.

The government alleges Jordan's actions or inaction subjected detainees to forced nudity and intimidation by dogs. He also is accused of lying to investigators in denying that he saw any abuse.

‘Set the stage for the abuses’

Jordan's "tacit approval" of violence by military police during an episode in November 2003 "can be pointed to as the causative factor that set the stage for the abuses that followed for days afterward," concluded Maj. Gen. George R. Fay and Lt. Gen. Anthony R. Jones, who investigated the scandal.

Eleven other U.S. soldiers — all from the enlisted ranks — have been convicted in the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, with former Cpl. Charles A. Graner Jr. receiving the harshest sentence, a 10-year prison term.

A general and other officers have received reprimands or demotions that ended or blighted their careers.

Since he was charged in April, Jordan has been on active duty with the Intelligence and Security Command at Fort Belvoir, Virginia.

Abu Ghraib officer to be court-martialed

[Al-khiyal]

US military occupation forces suffered at least 316 combat casulties (up sharply from 129) in the week ending January 24, and another 14 died from "non-hostile" causes, so total casualties reached at least 51,001. The total includes 25,579 killed or wounded by what the Pentagon classifies as "hostile" causes and 25,422 dead and injured (latest number is from December 4 - two months ago) from "non-hostile" causes such as accidents, suicides and illness serious enough to require medical evacuation.

US media divert attention from the actual cost in American life and limb by routinely reporting only the total killed (3,064 as of January 24) and rarely mentioning the 23,114 wounded in combat. To further minmize public perception of the cost, they cover for the Pentagon by ignoring the 24,823 military victims who suffered "non-hostile" injuries and illness as of December 4, although the 3,064 reported deaths includes the 599 (up 14 from last week) who died from those same causes. Another 153 American "contractors" (up six - including the Blackwater mercenaries) have also been killed since they invaded Iraq.

Although not defined as "casualties" since they have been discharged from active duty, as of July 20, 2006, a total of 152,669 U.S. military veterans of Iraq and Afganistan had filed disability claims, over 100,000 of which had been granted.

U.S. Iraq casualties exceed 51,001

[Al-khiyal]

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Gunmen ambushed the director general of Iraq's Industry Ministry as he drove to work in Baghdad on Sunday, killing him, his daughter and two others, police and the ministry said.

Police said gunmen in a car sprayed Adel Abdul-Mehsun al-Lami's vehicle with bullets in Baghdad's western Yarmouk district. Insurgents fighting the U.S.-backed Shi'ite-led government frequently attack or kidnap government officials.

A ministry spokesman said Lami's daughter had worked as an engineer in the ministry. The other two killed were his driver and a second unidentified employee.

Gunmen kill top Iraqi Industry Ministry official

[Al-khiyal]

BAGHDAD - Police found 27 bodies, most tortured and shot dead, in different parts of Baghdad, a police source said.

BAGHDAD - A suicide car bomber attacked an Iraqi army patrol, killing two soldiers and wounding 14 people, including two soldiers, in central Baghdad, a police source said.

BAGHDAD - Gunmen opened fire on a crowd in Baghdad's Bayaa district, killing one person and wounding two, a police source said.

MOSUL - A suicide bomber blew himself up in a Shi'ite mosque in Guba, on the outskirts of Mosul. Police said one person was killed and three were wounded.

HAWIJA - Police found the headless body of a man who was kidnapped on Thursday near Hawija, 70 km (43 miles) southwest of Kirkuk, police said.

KIRKUK - A body was found tortured and with bullet wounds in a village 20 km (13 miles) north of Kirkuk, police said.

[Al-khiyal]

BAGHDAD - Police found 40 bodies, most tortured and shot dead, in various parts of Baghdad, a police source said. Two of the victims were women.

ISKANDARIYA - Gunmen opened fire on a highway near Iskandariya, south of Baghdad, killing two people and wounding two more, police said.

BAGHDAD - A rocket landed in the international Green Zone in Baghdad and a witness said it landed in the U.S. embassy grounds. A U.S embassy official said two people were lightly wounded but could not confirm where the rocket landed.

RAMADI - Saad Hussein al-Alwani, the head of the Ramadi branch of the Iraqi National Congress, was kidnapped on Friday and found dead on Saturday, police said. The INC is a secular party headed by Ahmed Chalabi.

BAGHDAD - Two suicide car bombers killed 13 people and wounded 43 others in a mainly Shi'ite area of eastern Baghdad, a police source said. Other police sources said only one car was triggered by a suicide bomber and the other was a parked car detonated by remote control.

DIYALA PROVINCE - U.S. forces killed 14 insurgents in an air strike in Diyala province near Baghdad after some of the militants had tried to escape approaching troops, the U.S. military said in a statement.

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed five people from the same family and wounded another three when they stormed into a Shi'ite home in Baghdad's Amil district on Friday night, police and hospital officials said.

KIRKUK - A car bomb killed two people in a mainly Shi'ite neighbourhood in southern Kirkuk, police said.

BAGHDAD - Iraqi soldiers killed three insurgents and arrested seven others in various operations in Baghdad on Friday, the Defence Ministry said in a statement.

BAGHDAD - Mortar rounds killed one civilian and wounded 10 in western Baghdad's Hurriya district, police said.

BAGHDAD - Gunmen dressed in police commando uniforms abducted eight people from a central Baghdad computer store in the latest kidnapping to hit the capital, police sources said.

BAGHDAD - A mortar round wounded a civilian as it landed on a home in the mainly Christian area of Camp Sara in central Baghdad, police said. A second mortar wounded one person when it landed in Palestine Street, a major commercial road in Baghdad.

HAWIJA - A roadside bomb wounded four people travelling near Hawija, 70 km (43 miles) southwest of Kirkuk, police said.