The UN and Iran

[Al-khiyal]

Slowly Russia and China, supposedly hardline opponents of any US-UN sanctions against Iran, seem to be moving part-way toward an accommodation with Washington. Perhaps they realize that an uncompromising stance on Iran will permanently damage relations with the US. But there may be good reasons to stop the drift:

Iran: Russia, China drift Washington's way?

[Al-khiyal]

With the world holding its breath while permanent representatives of the UN Security Council met in New York to deliberate how to tackle the problem of Iran's nuclear programme, Iran pulled another rabbit out of its hat. This time it came in the form of a letter addressed from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to US President George W Bush, delivered via the Swiss Embassy, which is handling US interests in Tehran.

At the same time, considerations of various regional and international parties have altered in a manner that have weakened the American negotiating position in the Security Council and rendered talk of tough action against Iran incongruent with the current mood of the international community. Nonetheless, the third party initiative that all hoped would halt the vicious cycle of escalation between Washington and Tehran, dispelling the looming spectre of another war in the region, was not forthcoming. Ahmadinejad's media offensive was, in a sense, therefore a substitute well-timed. Although the letter contained nothing new with regard to the Iranian stance, it may have bought Tehran precious time as it waits for other parties to toss it a diplomatic lifeline.

The arrival of the Iranian letter unleashed a gust of wind across the UN Security Council. Until this point, Washington had been sitting smugly with its transatlantic partners, London and Paris, while across the table Beijing and Moscow seemed uncertain how to play their hand. The letter postmarked from Tehran strengthened the Russian and Chinese position, which is far from supportive of Iranian nuclear ambitions but opposed to the American way of handling the issue. It also set some gears into motion that might upset the neoconservative game plan. International Atomic Energy Agency Director Mohamed Al-Baradei voiced his belief that a constructive solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis was contingent upon US-Iranian negotiations. Similarly, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan called upon the two parties to hold direct talks.

This, in fact, was the subtext of Ahmadinejad's letter. A month ago, reportedly, Iran tried to send to Washington a message stating the same desire. But rather than airing it publicly in an 18-page document, Tehran dispatched Mohamed Reza Nahavandian, an aide to Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, with the undisclosed purpose of conveying this desire directly. Officials in Washington, unwilling to allow for any opening that might release steam from its anti-Iran juggernaut, refused to meet the Iranian delegate. In response to the snub, Ahmadinejad denied the substantive purpose of Nahavandian's visit: "200,000 Iranians leave the country and come back every year without there being something in it," he said.

Ahmedinejad's letter may have been addressed to Bush, but Bush was not the primary intended recipient. Tehran knows that the Bush administration is not going to soften unless Tehran tables something considerably more than a letter. In the past, for example, Iranian officials have used the White House to convey the message to US and international public opinion that Iran is eager to cool down tensions, just as they used the Europeans at the time of negotiations with the Troika to send messages to Washington, which is the only power capable of ensuring that Iran receives adequate compensation for compromising on the nuclear issue. On this occasion, the Europeans picked up the message and announced that they would put together a package of technological, commercial and even "regional" guarantees that they would offer Iran in exchange for a halt to its uranium enrichment programme.

"Regional guarantees" is the only addition to European offers to Iran since 2003, but the phrase is no small consideration. It implies international recognition of the legitimacy of the Iranian regime and its right to remain within, and perhaps participate in the shaping of, the "regional order". As this was one of the major aims of the Iranian nuclear programme, the new European offer is a considerable concession to Iran's ambitions as a regional power. More immediately, the offer signals that Tehran has succeeded in driving a wedge between the Europeans, now more keen to reward Iran for cooperating, and Washington, still bent on its siege strategy.

Iran has won another two weeks until the next Security Council meeting in order to capitalise on its gains. If, until a short time ago, the Iranian tactic was to flex its regional muscle via strategic alliances stretching from the Shia in Iraq through Damascus and up to southern Lebanon, over the past two weeks it has demonstrated a talent at flexing other muscles. Prime among these is its ability to single-handedly influence the international oil market. Western demand for gasoline rises at this time of year in anticipation of the summer holiday season. When Ahmadinejad disclosed that he had sent a letter to Bush, the price of crude plummeted by a dollar and a half to its lowest level in three weeks. The Iranians then showed how they could drive the price up again, if they wanted. A day after that drop, Ali Larijani announced that there would be "important consequences to the international energy market" if Iran were attacked. Suddenly oil prices climbed by half a dollar.

Iranian oil exports are not the only key to Iran's ability to affect the international energy market; the country is also strategically poised over the Straits of Hormuz, through which passes oil from Gulf countries to the rest of the world.

The question is, what next?

Iranian bodybuilders are renowned for their art. When you see them in the zorkhana - the traditional gym - you cannot help but gasp in astonishment at their skill and dexterity. Towards the end of their shows, bodybuilders display their proficiency by using various weights and chains to flex and enhance muscles in rapidly executed routines choreographed to the beat of Iranian tambourines. Yet, as impressive as these performances are, the spectator cannot help but grow weary of the repetition. The same applies to Iranian diplomatic muscle flexing. Ahmadinejad's letter to Bush was a brilliant display of Tehran's dexterity at using the media to win international sympathy. Having come after a period of flexing various other strategic muscles, it represents a new and graceful addition to the routine. However, this strategy's weakness resides precisely in the danger of it becoming routine; of spectators getting weary and saying "Enough already!".

Tehran has another two-week grace period. Either it comes up with a new move or two, or it will have to accept compromise, take its curtain bow to applause and calls of congratulation and come back to the table with substantive and final proposals.

From Ahmadinejad to Bush

[Al-khiyal]

The European Union and Washington are split over an EU proposal to offer Iran a generous package of incentives including nuclear reactors and security pledges if it stops enriching uranium, diplomats said on Saturday.

The EU draft offer of a package of incentives in exchange for a suspension of enrichment has caused a split in the West's previously united position on Iran since Washington has serious reservations about the European plan, EU diplomats said.

The plan will be discussed in London on Wednesday by senior officials from the "EU3", the United States, Russia and China, an EU diplomat familiar with the EU3's preliminary draft proposal told Reuters.

"We agreed to offer Iran a nuclear power plant and possibly more along with support for an international (nuclear) fuel consortium to guarantee fuel for civilian nuclear activity," the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

Russia and China are expected to support the plan but Washington is concerned about the idea of supporting a regional security framework in the Middle East and exempting EU firms from U.S. penalties if they do business with Iran......

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[Al-khiyal]

VIENNA, Austria - Iran could be offered an end to U.N. Security Council pressure if it agrees to suspend uranium enrichment but face sanctions backed by the threat of force if it refuses, under a proposal being considered by world powers, diplomats said Saturday.

Yet even before the package of incentives and penalties was formally on the table, Tehran appeared ready to opt for the stick instead of the carrot.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told journalists in Kuwait City that while Iran wants the council to end its involvement, "suspending nuclear activities goes against our legitimate rights and is not part of the NPT," or Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

The draft proposal on Iran is being considered by the five Security Council nations plus Germany and could still undergo revision before the six powers sit down Wednesday to approve it, said one of the diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to reveal elements of the draft.

As it stands now, the proposal says the international community will "agree to suspend discussion of Iran's file at the Security Council," if Tehran resumes talks on its nuclear program, suspends enrichment during such talks and lifts a ban on intrusive inspections by the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

It also offers help in "the building of new light-water reactors in Iran," offers an assured supply of nuclear fuel for up to five years, and asks Tehran to accept a plan that would move its enrichment program to Russia.

If Iran remains defiant, the draft calls for banning travel visas; freezing assets; banning financial transactions of key government figures and those involved in Iran's nuclear program; an arms embargo, and other measures including an embargo on shipping refined oil products to Iran. While Iran is a major exporter of crude it has a shortage of gasoline and other oil derivatives.

"Where appropriate, these measures would be adopted under Chapter VII, Article 41 of the U.N. Charter," says the draft, referring to provisions that add the implicit threat of military force to a Security Council resolution.

That language — backed by the United States, France and Britain — remains controversial, and the head of the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency plans to urge the Bush administration next week to ease its push for tough Security Council action.

Diplomats said Mohamed ElBaradei would meet with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley and other top U.S. officials in Washington on Tuesday — a day before senior officials of the five permanent Security Council members, the European Union, and Germany convene in London to consider the Iran package.

The Americans have swung behind new attempts by France, Britain and Germany to persuade the Iranians to give up enrichment, which can be used to generate nuclear fuel or the core of weapons. But Washington insists that the Iran package include the threat of a Security Council resolution that is militarily enforceable if Tehran refuses.

Russia and China — the two other permanent Security Council members — oppose any resolution that even implicitly threatens the use of force.

Reiterating Russia's position, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday that negotiations with Iran without preconditions were the way to resolve the nuclear standoff, and repeated that Moscow was against sanctions or the use of force against Tehran......

Iran rejects U.N. plan before it's offered

[Al-khiyal]

TEHRAN (AFX) - Iran's government insisted that its uranium enrichment programme is not up for negotiation, again rejecting European efforts to secure a halt to the sensitive nuclear work despite international calls for dialogue.

Government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham also promised the Islamic regime will continue to work towards reaching an industrial-scale capacity in enrichment, a process which can be extended to make nuclear weapons.

"The right to enrichment within the framework of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and under the surveillance of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is an absolute right," he told reporters.

"This right and its implementation must be guaranteed. This is not something on which we can back down, whether for research or industrial purposes. This is not something on which we can negotiate or back down," Elham said.

"Nuclear technology is a right that nobody can challenge, and all Iranians are unanimous in claiming this right."

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[Al-khiyal]

LONDON - Senior officials from the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany will meet in London on Wednesday to discuss the next steps on Iran’s disputed nuclear programme, a British official confirmed on Monday.

The meeting of political directors was postponed last week to allow the European Union trio more time to prepare a package of incentives aimed at getting Teheran to freeze a uranium enrichment programme the West says could be used to make atomic bombs.

Teheran says it needs the nuclear technology for power stations.

“The meeting is on Wednesday,” said a foreign ministry spokesman who declined to give further details.

Despite divisions, officials from the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany will try to agree on what action to take next with Iran.

The EU trio is working on a plan of incentives, which could include an offer of a light-water reactor but Iran last week ruled out halting its sensitive nuclear work even in return for incentives.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Sunday the European powers had not asked Washington to provide Iran with security guarantees although some diplomats say the EU trio want some kind of security framework to make it more difficult for Teheran to turn down.

Europe may still find a formula that allows for some security pledge to Iran despite Washington’s reluctance to give a guarantee of its own.

The United States says it wants to find a diplomatic solution to the standoff with Iran but has also refused to rule out military action.

Britain confirms meeting of world powers on Iran

[Al-khiyal]

TEHRAN, May 23 -- Iran has followed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's recent letter to President Bush with explicit requests for direct talks on its nuclear program, according to U.S. officials, Iranian analysts and foreign diplomats.

The eagerness for talks demonstrates a profound change in Iran's political orthodoxy, emphatically erasing a taboo against contact with Washington that has both defined and confined Tehran's public foreign policy for more than a quarter-century, they said.

Though the Tehran government in the past has routinely jailed its citizens on charges of contact with the country it calls the "Great Satan," Ahmadinejad's May 8 letter was implicitly endorsed by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and lavished with praise by perhaps the most conservative ayatollah in the theocratic government.

"You know, two months ago nobody would believe that Mr. Khamenei and Mr. Ahmadinejad together would be trying to get George W. Bush to begin negotiations," said Saeed Laylaz, a former government official and prominent analyst in Tehran. "This is a sign of changing strategy. They realize the situation is dangerous and they should not waste time, that they should reach out."

Laylaz and several diplomats said senior Iranian officials have asked a multitude of intermediaries to pass word to Washington making clear their appetite for direct talks. He said Ali Larijani, chairman of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, passed that message to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, who arrived in Washington Tuesday for talks with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley.

Iranian officials made similar requests through Indonesia, Kuwait and U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, Laylaz said. American intelligence analysts also say Larijani's urgent requests for meetings with senior officials in France and Germany appear to be part of a bid for dialogue with Washington......

Continue reading..... Iran requests direct talks on nuclear program

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