July 27, 2007 -- Algeria runs the risk of sinking into the hands of terrorists, suggesting a possible return to the days of the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS). A number of terrorist attacks registered in the last few months point to an unpredictable situation in the country, worsened yet by political crisis and a weakened President Abdelaziz Bouteflika:

The evolution of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC)

The current terrorism risk level can be described as edging towards an avalanche of attacks - enough to bring the country to a state of paralysis. Such seems to be the strategy adopted by al-Qaida in the Maghreb region, the organisation's operative base is in Algeria and its actions span all over north-western Africa. Under a new terrorist acronym, as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), the organisation has taken on a new structure, becoming a point of reference and ‘coordinating’ a number of terrorist organisations in the region - comprising what is now a terror network spread across Africa and capable of destabilising the entire Maghreb region. The GSPC has recently finished the road paved by previous experts, overcoming national boundaries and taking on the role of a transnational organisation, a movement capable of coordinating a number of terrorist groups. The group is loosely coordinated and supplies individuals and logistics to whoever wishes to be rewarded for taking part in armed combat in the support of Islam. The more loosely coordinated it is, the more dangerous the organisation and the more able it is to expand its influence beyond Africa. Europe - and particularly Spain - is a potentially favoured destination for al-Qaida activities in Maghreb. According to the Spanish secret services, sleeping terrorist cells, perfectly integrated into Spanish society, are already prepared to receive and carry out orders for terrorist activities.

Terrorist violence

Algeria has been overrun by a terrorist alert that reached its climax in April this year, when a car bomb exploded next to the Government headquarters in the capital, leaving 30 dead and 200 injured. The signal was clear: terrorists are at odds with President Bouteflika's project for national reconciliation. Other attacks were soon to follow. The death toll grew in the last terrorist attack on the 14 of July in Barika, a city in the region of Batna (approximately 400 kilometres south of the capital Algiers) where two children died and several others were injured. A few days earlier, a truck loaded with explosive material was launched against a military barracks in Lakhadaria, leaving 10 dead.

Yet, apart from being a sensitive ground for Islamic terrorism, Algeria has been chosen, next to a number of African countries, as the training headquarters for new recruits. There are many hidden spots organised as training grounds where aspiring suicide bombers turn up ready to perform terrorist attacks. Many of these centres have been discovered and dismantled by police forces working together with the American military. The United States are actively involved in an anti-terrorism front, with back-up units going into action to support Algerian soldiers. The international community is, however, worried about the vast Algerian territory, where isolated desert land is often chosen for training suicide bombers. Yet, geographical peculiarities in Algeria are common to a number of other countries, especially those located in the Sahel.

Algiers has been involved for a long time in a battle to defeat terrorist organisations. The last positive result was achieved a few days ago, when 20 terrorists were struck down in the North of the country, near the insidious territories of the Yakouren forest. According to the Algerian daily El Watan, the terrorists belonged to Maghreb's al-Qaida branch. The Algerian government has officially sanctioned the policy of “zero tolerance” and put an end to the “policy of absconding” culprits in terrorist conflicts, released in February 2006. “Armed Islamic militants have no choice: give in or be killed,” said Ali Tounsi, director of national security, in a radio interview. The government has maintained a hard line against terrorists, who have shown disapproval and the rejection of reconciliation. In a speech made on the 5th of July before army generals, President Bouteflika expressed his wish to continue “fighting against criminal and terrorist activity“ incessantly.

Aid from Washington

The Bush administration, whose war on terror has been the main element of US foreign policy, is aware of Algeria's role in the anti-terrorism front. The Trans-Saharan Counter-Terrorism Partnership (TSCTP), a multilateral cooperation initiative with substantial resources from the White House, is a clear signal of how Washington plans to go about voicing its concerns. Thanks to financial and logistic support provided by the United States, the fight against Islamist terrorism has been spearheaded by the host of countries involved - i.e.: Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia in the Maghreb; Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal in the Sahel region and West Africa. The presence of American troops in the area is meant for patrolling the area and intervening in extreme cases, with “surgical operations” being used to dismantle al-Qaida training bases. Hence Algeria's anti-terrorism campaign relies heavily on tightened relations with Washington, as it would hardly be in the condition of facing danger on its own account.

A weakened Bouteflika

A new era seems to have begun in Algerian politics following the elections last 17 May. As the new set-up remains a long way from being defined, the only certainty guaranteed by analysts is that of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's waning power. Since his party was severely weakened in the last elections, observers have already suggested a period after Bouteflika. And although Bouteflika is due to finish his term in 2009, the president's unstable health conditions may entail the possibility of an earlier exit. Bouteflika's ailing conditions are a further element of instability, as the current political generation lacks a clear successor to his leadership. The army would be the first to launch a successor, possibly giving way to elections at a later stage. As a matter of fact, the Algerian army has usually been relevant in the first instance and could well play a role in rescuing the country from an eventual rift in stability. Bouteflika has relied on the current premier Belkhadem, who he trusts, although he is purportedly close to Islamist currents - therefore opposed by the secularist military elite.

Meanwhile, Algiers' front man is re-establishing relations with Paris over an economic plan for commercial cooperation, despite this being more at the behest of French president Nicolas Sarkozy than due to his own initiative. As a recent example the French energy giant GDF could land a contract with Algerian petrol company Sonatrach. Bouteflika's manoeuvring in the deal has as yet to signal a real political weight still held by the president.

Conclusions

The recent terrorist surge has succeeded in threatening to set Algeria back to the years of the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS). There have been a number of attacks aimed at sensitive locations, including one targeted at the Government palace in Algiers. Apart from the number of victims, the launch of the jihad has left many worried about the organisational capability the terrorist network has shown to possess. The evolution of the GSPC, in renewing its role and giving life to al-Qaida in the Maghreb, is a signal of the new strategy not only in relation to its territorial dimension, but also in relation to a complex and organised strategy that aspires to become (or perhaps has already become) a point of reference for armed Islamist fundamentalists in Northern Africa. Despite efforts promoted by Algiers and Washington, terrorists seem to have gained the upper hand and now threaten attacks in the Maghreb. The current position of President Bouteflika, following his electoral setback in May, risks worsening the situation even further. Terrorists see political instability as the short-term goal through which they may arrive at internal consensus, launching the country into disorder.