Stagnant Maghreb politics fuel stability concerns

[Al-khiyal]

ALGIERS, September 27, 2007 (Reuters) - Suicide bombings in Algeria are arousing concern about the long-term stability of north Africa, an area where economic and political stagnation offers al Qaeda scope to foment unrest on Europe's southern flank.

Few analysts detect any short-term threat to the rulers who wield tight control in a region where Europe obtains 20 percent of its gas imports and sends millions on holiday each year.

Nor are broad-based rebellions such as the one that shook OPEC member Algeria in the 1990s in prospect.

However, popular alienation from formal politics and low levels of job creation may provide Algeria's numerically diminished but increasingly bold Islamist rebels with opportunities for expansion in neighbouring Tunisia, Morocco and Libya, experts say.

The risk is that deepening social malaise could help armed groups recruit more young men to commit regular suicide attacks of the kind that have killed scores of people in Algeria this year. Such a trend would hit confidence in a region trying to lure investors, boost regional trade and give people hope.

For jobless Algerian graduate Abdeslam Selmane, as for tens of thousands of young Maghrebis, the solution may end up being illegal migration on a boat to Europe rather than terrorism.

"I need a job, a house ... basic stuff to have a decent life," the 23-year-old said. "Leaving the country - through any means - is my solution."

The regional gap between rulers and ruled has long been seen as a danger. In a 2005 paper, U.S. Maghreb expert John Pierre Entelis wrote: "Terrorism is one outcome of the failure to fundamentally reform and restructure Maghrebi political orders."

This year has seen Algeria's first suicide bombings and record low turnouts of 35 and 37 percent in Algerian and Moroccan parliamentary elections, aggravating old worries about the consequences of tight curbs on political life.

Tunisia and Libya have stepped up surveillance of Islamists.

"People in the region believe that voting is useless. Why should I vote, they say, if it won't have any impact on our daily life," Algerian political analyst Mahmoud Belhimer said.

"What's at stake here is regional stability. And you can't guarantee long-term stability without opening up to democracy."

Concern about the region helped to inspire a French proposal for a so-called Mediterranean Union of states that would coordinate on migration, terrorism and economic development.

There are big differences between north African countries - Libya's three-decade-old no-party system of popular rule is unique, Morocco's ruling royal dynasty is four centuries old and army-backed leaders have been the norm in Algeria for 45 years.

Algeria and Libya have oil and gas but are otherwise economically weak. Morocco and Tunisia lack energy riches but have diversified private sectors admired by foreign investors.

The similarities are also striking: high unemployment, low economic productivity, curbs on political participation, poor education, red tape and meagre levels of regional trade.

"The most serious threat to the Maghreb region would come not from terrorism but from social issues: basic needs and the purchasing power for ordinary citizens," said Bilal Talidi, a political analyst and university teacher from Morocco.

Tunisian dissident Rachid Kachena said: "Preventing political parties from taking care of the youth could make it even easier for terrorist organisations to hire young people."

A few years ago things looked different. Modernising social reforms in Morocco and a lifting of Western sanctions on Libya suggested the region was heading for a new era of stability.

Above all, Algeria's turmoil, which has cost up to 200,000 lives since 1992, appeared to be firmly winding down.

Ruthless army pressure helped quell an Islamist insurgency that began in 1992 when the then army-backed rulers scrapped legislative elections that a radical Islamic party was poised to win.

The government won the disarmament of tens of thousands of rebels with repeated amnesties. However, the rebels' embrace of suicide bombing and their use of the al Qaeda's name has tested nerves anew.

"The government buys off dissent through the distribution of revenue from oil and gas. This is a key factor that enables the system to work," said Wolfram Lacher of risk consultancy Control Risks Group.

In Morocco, where the monarchy has wide support, pro-democracy activists say royal-appointed technocrats wield the true levers of power. Morocco, too, has been hit by suicide bombings.

Tunisia has north Africa's best educated population and largest middle class. However, the government is accused by rights groups of running a de facto police state. It denies this.

Muammar Gaddafi, the region's best known ruler who has led Libya since grabbing power in a 1969 coup, is slowly unshackling its statist economy but says political reform will not happen.

Maghreb governments rule out a role for "those who manipulate religion for political ends" - a widely used phrase that refers to many Islamist groups. Critics say this simply pushes Islamists to consider violence as a way of being heard.

"It is useless to combat terrorists if you don't tackle the causes that produce them," wrote Algerian analyst Abed Charef.

"Without a political, economic and social blossoming, you will have factors of resurgent violence."

Stagnant Maghreb politics fuel stability concerns

[Al-khiyal]

Key facts about Maghreb political systems

September 27, 2007 (Reuters) - Suicide bombings in regional hotspot Algeria are arousing concern about the long-term stability of north Africa, where economic and political stagnation offers al Qaeda scope to promote unrest on Europe's southern flank.

Following are key facts about Maghreb states:

ALGERIA

* The presidency, occupied by Abdelaziz Bouteflika, 70, has been the most powerful office of state since independence from France in 1962 and Algerians tend to believe parliament exists to rubber stamp its decisions.

*The army exerts wide influence on public affairs. The country has been under a state of emergency since 1992 because of an Islamist rebellion. Street marches are banned.

* Algeria has amassed $80 billion in foreign exchange reserves but the non-energy sector, which provides most jobs, is dominated by overmanned state firms. Unemployment among adults under 30 is more than 70 percent, official figures show.

* Algeria ranks 102nd out of 177 countries in the U.N. Human Development Index, which measures factors like access to health and education. According to Freedom House, a U.S.-based watchdog group, Algeria scores 6 for political liberties and 5 for civil liberties on a scale that has 7 as the most unfree.

LIBYA

* Muammar Gaddafi, in his mid-60s, has ruled since 1969 when he staged a bloodless coup and abolished the monarchy. In the 1970s he proclaimed citizens should rule through Basic People's Congresses which, in theory, hold ultimate power.

* Critics say real power resides in so-called revolutionary committees of loyalists who wield influence in the military, the press and government institutions and enforce obedience to the "state of the masses" system which bans political parties.

* Gaddafi has long voiced support for free market reforms but says Libyans must not confuse economic change with political reform: the ban on the ballot box will not be lifted, he says.

* Libya is 64 on the U.N. index and scores 7 for political liberties and 7 for civil liberties on the Freedom House scale. Unemployment is unofficially estimated at 30 percent.

MOROCCO

* The king wields paramount powers, from religious affairs to foreign and domestic policy and the military command.

* The Makhzen, a network of landowners, tribal and religious leaders and modern bureaucrats and politicians, is the core of the ruling system. Parliament is seen as ineffective.

* King Mohammed, 44, who ascended the throne in 1999, has pushed social reforms while keeping control over the levers of power and the democratic process. Critics say politics is doomed to irrelevance until the palace devolves more power.

* Morocco ranks 123rd in the U.N. Human Development Index, and scores 5 for political liberties and 4 for civil liberties on the Freedom House scale. Unemployment is 10 percent.

TUNISIA

* President Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali, 71, came to power in 1987. He won elections in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2004.

* Ben Ali is widely credited with ensuring political stability and strong economic growth.

* Critics accuse his presidential republic of riding roughshod over human rights and democratic values. The government strongly denies the allegation.

* Tunisia ranks 87 on the U.N. Human Development Index and scores 6 for political liberties and 5 for civil liberties on the Freedom House scale. Unemployment is 14 percent.