To vote or not to vote ? !

[HOUDA-K]

Muslims in London make sure your registered to vote by 16th April for the London Mayoral Election for the 01 May 08.

[Al-khiyal]

Livingstone in the lead in London election

Al-Arab, London, April 10, 2008 -A poll carried out by IPSOS-MORI, commissioned by the trade union UNISON, this week, taking the 48 per cent who say they are ‘absolutely certain to vote’, shows the first preference results were 41% for Ken Livingstone, 40% for Boris Johnson, 14% for Brian Paddick, and 5% for Sian Berry – a one point lead for Ken Livingstone.

Taking all those expressing a voting preference (85 per cent) the results were 45% for Ken Livingstone, 38% for Boris Johnson, 11% for Brian Paddick, and 5% Sian Berry – a lead for Ken Livingstone of seven points, indicating that turn-out may well be the decisive factor in the outcome of the election on 1 May.

When second preference votes were counted for those certain to vote, Ken Livingstone’s lead was 2 points - 51% to 49%. Amongst all those expressing a voting preference Ken Livingstone led Boris Johnson by a massive 8 points - by 54% to 46%

Polling was carried out from 1 to 7 April. The sample size was 1,000. Polling was by telephone.

The weighting to match the London adult population profile made no more than a one point cent difference to any candidate’s share, indicating that the poll capturing a highly representative sample.

Ken Livingstone’s first preference was particularly strong among the young aged 18-34, where he leads over Boris Johnson by 55% to 29%, and among women voters – where he leads by 46% to 36%. Boris Johnson leads among those over 55 – by 46% to 39%.

This is the second poll carried out by conventional telephone polling techniques within a week to show the election for London Mayor at present to be essentially neck and neck. Last Wednesday, 3 April, an ICM poll for the Guardian newspaper put Boris Johnson on 42% to Ken Livingstone’s 41% on first preferences and ahead 51% to 49% once second preference votes were redistributed. This is also consistent with IPSOS MORI’S February poll.

Ken Livingstone’s campaign said: ‘We believe these polls show the election is neck and neck at present and has been throughout this election. Two reputable polling companies using established methods giving the same neck and neck result within a week shows clearly that You Gov internet polls, which depend on weighting which they admit they got wrong, are inaccurate. These You Gov polls have been used by the Evening Standard to divert attention from the real issues in the London election.’

Ken Livingstone said: ‘The poll which counts is on 1 May. But Londoners who want London to continue to move forward to tackle the great possibilities and challenges of the 21st century, rather than retreating into being a narrow Conservative backwater, know they have every chance of this. It will be the big issues of transport, crime, housing, good community relations, and the environment – meeting the key needs of London in the 21st century - that will decide the outcome of this election.’